By 2070, INSEE estimates the French population at 68.1 million if current demographic trends continue. The proportion of those under 65 will fall by 5 million, while that of those aged 75 and over will increase by 5.7 million.
This will lead to a clear change in the age pyramid by 2070.
In 2035, deaths would exceed births
According to INSEE, the French population will continue to increase by 116,000 people each year until 2035. The country will thus reach 69 million inhabitants with a growth of + 0.2% per year. From 2035 however, the statistical institution announced that the number of deaths would be higher than births. Population growth will then be supported by net migration before falling from 2044. From then on, it will stabilize at 45,000 people per year, which will make it possible to reach 68.1 million inhabitants in 2070.
Evolution of the French population from 1970 to 2070 according to INSEE
By 2040, people 65 and over will be on the rise
In 2040, the share of populations aged 65 and over would increase by + 5% compared to 2021 and could reach 26%. However, this progression will regress from 2040, while the natives of the 1974 baby-boom generation will enter this age group. By 2070, the cost of people aged 65 and over will reach 29%, an increase of 8% compared to the current year.
On the other hand, the aging of the French population should continue in the coming years according to INSEE statistics. Indeed, the demographic dependency ratio will reach 51 in 2040 against 37 in 2021 according to the central scenario. Respectively in the scenarios of less aging and “young population”, this should reach 49% and 48%. This increase can also be seen in the “elderly population” scenario with a ratio of 53.
In 2070, the number of seniors will be on the rise
By 2070, INSEE statistics show that France will have 68.1 million inhabitants if the central scenario is close to that of 2021. The share of people aged 75 or over will increase by +5.7 million while that of the under-60s will fall by -5 million. These estimates are justified in particular by the increase in life expectancy that is taking place and that to come in the country. Also, note that people born in 1995 or before outnumber those born before 1946.
As for the population aged 60 to 74, the estimated population in 2070 would be similar to that of 2021. In fact, life expectancy will be used to compensate for the smaller size of the generations preceding 1946. In addition, people born from 2021 would be less numerous in 2070. This is explained by the fact that the total fertility rate is equal to 1.8 children per woman in the central scenario.
Finally, the number of women in 2070 will drop slightly to reach 50.8% of the population against 51.7% currently. This rebalancing is carried out at the level of women aged 85 and over with a rating that will drop from 68 to 59%. The share of women over 100 years old in 2021 (84%) will also decline to reach 71% by 2070.