the earth could gain six degrees if we do nothing

Global warming is inevitable, scientists are now trying to measure how much it could change the way we live on Earth.

COP26 has just opened in Glasgow, Scotland. The opportunity for the governments of all the countries of the world to come together and find together a solution, at least to try to find one, to fight against global warming. Because the situation is increasingly worrying. The IPCC reports regularly sound yet another alarm bell on the climate disaster which is underway, without any major action being taken.

In the latest issue of the journal Atmospheric Science Letters, researchers around the world tried to set up a new generation of climate models. This basis of study should allow the scientists of tomorrow to predict with more precision where the “extremes” of heat will occur in order to limit the effects of these on the environment and the human species. The study proposes four more or less optimistic models on the climatic evolution of our planet.

In the first two, scientists hope that the commitments made in Paris 5 years ago during Cop21 will be kept and that global warming will thus be kept below 1.5 or 2 degrees by 2100. A situation that is far from perfect, but which seems to be the best option the human race still has. In the third model, the efforts taken by the various governments around the world are not sufficient and the temperature continues to rise to +3 degrees.

Extreme events every year?

Scientists then believe that it is the continental areas, in particular southern Europe and the Asian territories, will be the most affected by this rise in temperature. Finally, in the most pessimistic hypothesis, the efforts taken are very insufficient and no action of a global nature comes to counter global warming, the temperature then rises by six degrees by the end of the century.

Scientists explain that in the most likely model (+3 degrees) hot extremes, such as the 2003 heatwave, which occur every 10 years or so today could be 8 times more common by the end of the century. With such warming, the effects of the latter would enter an unstoppable vicious circle. In the model where the warming is limited to 1.5 degrees, an idea which is today the least probable, these hot “extremes” as they are called by the researchers would occur “only” three times more often than today. . Some parts of the globe could nevertheless experience periods of very hot weather every year.

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